Schedule
This week's games with records, starting quarterbacks, each team's power-rating rank (1st = best in the NFL) and the model's projected score. Open a matchup sheet for the full stat breakdown.
Team rankings
Every team stat with its rank (1st = best). Tap a column to sort, or tap a team for its 5-season profile. Group by division to see where each team ranks inside its own division, or by this week's games to compare opponents side by side.
Matchup sheets
Pick any game left on the 2026 schedule. Ranks are out of 32. For an offense, 1 means the best. For a defense, 1 means the stingiest, including in the position table: 1st gives up the least to that position, and a red 23rd–32nd is a soft spot. Hover a rank to see last season's.
Stat Desk Pro
Everything on this site is free, including the model's projected score for every game. Pro adds the deeper model tools. Coming soon.
Lab track record
Every Pro pick logged before kickoff and graded after, wins and losses, so you can judge the model yourself.
Model picks
The games where the model's numbers differ most from the market, posted with a public track record.
Player projections
Projected yards, receptions and touchdown chances for skill players.
NBA
Team ratings, matchups and projections for the NBA, launching later this season.
About The Stat Desk
The Stat Desk is a free NFL stats site: team rankings across every major offensive and defensive stat, five-season team profiles, model projections for every game, and a matchup sheet for every game left on the schedule. NBA coverage is coming later this season.
Where the numbers come from
Play-by-play, schedules, rosters and depth charts come from nflverse. Injury statuses are taken from public team reports. Stats update after each week's games.
How the projections work
Each game's projected score comes from the two teams' power ratings, home-field advantage and whether the starting quarterbacks are expected to play. The win chance is how often the projected favorite would win if the game were played many times. Projections are estimates of how a game plays out, not guarantees, and they update every week as new results come in.
The model record
Every week's projections are saved before the first kickoff and never changed afterward. After the games, each one is graded on whether the projected winner won. The live record started in Week 6 of 2026, when projections began being saved. The 2023–25 replay shows how the same method would have done on past seasons, which is useful context but not a live result.
Key terms
- EPA per play: expected points added. How much each play changed a team's expected score, on average. Above zero is good for an offense.
- Success rate: share of plays that gained enough yards to stay on schedule (40% of the needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th).
- Explosive play rate: share of plays gaining 20+ yards through the air or 10+ on the ground.
- Power rating: how many points better or worse a team is than an average team on a neutral field, adjusted for opponent strength.
Contact
Email hello@thestatdeskhq.app or join the Discord.